Carrying on a practice we began final yr, PetaPixel has gathered its workers collectively to debate the issues they know, not simply assume, will happen over the course of the following calendar yr. We’re able to be very, very incorrect.
As we defined final yr, due to our fixed inundation with know-how, imaging, and artwork information, we at PetaPixel get to speak about a few of the coolest know-how and most attention-grabbing traits on a regular basis and might’t assist however speculate on what’s going to occur subsequent. And whereas we’re in all probability too knowledgeable on the subject provided that we’re steeped in it each day, that in all probability doesn’t imply we’ll be proper by rather more than they might be (like how being knowledgable about soccer doesn’t imply you’re going to draft an ideal fantasy group), however it’s nonetheless a blast to debate.
Writer’s notice: Our annual plan is for our Daring Predictions to be printed previous to the start of the brand new yr, however in December I injured my proper hand, which left me unable to sort for 2 weeks. So please forgive this story’s lateness, however all of the predictions right here have been gathered in early December 2022.
Checking Our Work
Final yr we made some tremendous daring predictions, so earlier than we get on to 2023, how did we fare?
Prediction: Canon will launch not less than two cameras within the first quarter, however the R1 received’t seem till 2023.
End result: True! Canon did launch two cameras in early 2022: the Eos R7 and R10. Canon additionally didn’t announce the R1, however that’s a subject we’ll get into extra in a bit.
Prediction: The Canon M sequence shall be deserted and the EOS M50 Mark II the ultimate EOS M sequence digital camera to be produced.
End result: False… thus far. Despite the fact that we don’t have any indication that Canon goes to proceed the M-series cameras and no new EOSM merchandise have been produced in 2022, the corporate remains to be producing and promoting it. We’ll actually solely know if this prediction shall be true after extra time has handed.
Prediction: Everybody goes to make a shutterless digital camera.
End result: False. This one was in all probability a bit too daring, because it takes years for digital camera producers to react to modifications out there. This one wants extra time within the oven.
Prediction: Some high-end cameras will get cheaper, however not all of them.
End result: False. Sadly, cameras mainly all bought dearer. An ideal instance is the Sony Alpha 7R V, which launched for a body-only value of $3,900, considerably greater than its predecessor that got here to market at $2,500.
Prediction: Nikon received’t surpass both Sony or Canon in digital camera gross sales, regardless of the Z9’s wild success.
End result: True. Whereas Nikon has largely circled its woeful monetary state that it dug itself into previous to the COVID-19 pandemic, its gross sales numbers are nonetheless effectively under the market leaders in Canon and Sony, not less than through the metrics we have now entry to.
Prediction: We received’t see Sigma’s Foveon digital camera in 2022.
End result: True. Not solely did it not launch in 2022, it’s not even clear if Sigma was in a position to hit its aim of ending the sensor alone by the tip of the yr though the corporate did end the second stage of prototyping in February. The digital camera is well nonetheless a methods off; a prediction that at this level isn’t even daring.
Prediction: Sony received’t change its digital camera physique design.
End result: Principally true. Whereas Sony did iterate on its rear LCD, the Alpha 7R V appears to be like and feels mainly the identical because the Alpha cameras that got here earlier than it.
Prediction: One other main producer will make a digital camera powered by Android… and it’ll fail.
End result: False. Gratefully, this didn’t come to cross. We don’t want extra of those, and it seems that the businesses who’re concerned about working with the Google-owned working system are sticking with smartphones the place it belongs.
Prediction: Sony will lastly use a rear LCD with greater than 2 million pixels.
End result: True! The Sony Alpha 7R V makes use of a 2.1 million dot LCD. Technically appropriate, the very best form of appropriate!
Prediction: Canon and Nikon are executed making DSLRs.
End result: True. Look, it’ll be an extended whereas nonetheless earlier than we get full affirmation that this occurred in 2022, however though each corporations proceed to fabricate them, each Nikon and Canon are executed making new DSLRs.
Daring Predictions for 2023
Look, 50% appropriate undoubtedly isn’t a passing grade, however so far as daring predictions go, we really feel fairly proud of our efficiency from final yr. So let’s observe that up with some extra for 2023.
The EOS R1 isn’t coming in 2023.
Despite the fact that we stated to count on it in 2023 in final yr’s Daring Predictions, don’t. Issues modified over the course of the final one year and Canon isn’t able to launch it’s flagship, high-resolution, professional-level digital camera but. Some might need anticipated to see it on the FIFA World Cup this previous winter, however it wasn’t a shock to us at PetaPixel that the digital camera stays nothing greater than a rumor at this level.
Canon formally hasn’t even acknowledged that the digital camera exists, and our sources inform us that whereas the 1D sequence of DSLRs was a sports activities digital camera, the R1 received’t be positioned as such though it in all probability can have the autofocus capabilities to take action. No, sports activities are actually for the R3 line, and the R1 goes to be Canon’s decision king. That stated, don’t count on it to outperform what we have already got from Sony and Hasselblad.
One thing is holding the R1 behind closed doorways. We aren’t certain what, however don’t count on it to even be introduced as in growth till spring 2024.
Canon, Nikon, Sony, or OM-Digital will make a digital camera geared up with AI-based computational energy akin to what’s seen in smartphones.
OM-Digital might be the probably candidate right here because it has been making cameras that dabble in computational pictures for the final a number of years (though one PetaPixel workers member places cash on it being Sony). That stated, considered one of these 4 producers goes to make the leap and put a concerted effort into equipping a standalone digital camera, in all probability an entry-level mannequin, with the identical computational energy presently present in smartphones.
It’s in all probability a stretch to assume it’ll use a Qualcomm Snapdragon processor, though that’s completely doable, however corporations have seen the explosion of smartphone pictures for a number of years now, that means it’s about time for a response to hit the market.
The Sony Alpha 9 III is coming this yr, not a successor to the Alpha 1.
Perhaps it’s not as daring as different predictions, however don’t count on an Alpha 1 successor in 2023. As an alternative, Sony will launch a brand new Alpha 9 mannequin that can use the identical groundbreaking autofocus enhancements discovered within the Alpha 7R V, however with much more spectacular general efficiency since it would use a decrease decision sensor.
One other main fimware replace will make the Nikon Z9 really feel new, however there received’t be an entirely new digital camera to succeed it.
Nikon is lastly catching up with the demand for the Z9, so don’t count on the corporate to push out a brand new flagship mannequin this yr. As an alternative, Nikon will maintain pushing the envelope for what is feasible with the present mannequin and one other main firmware replace — which shall be free — will make it really feel like a model new digital camera similar to the 2022 replace did final yr.
The Kind 1 sensor will grow to be commonplace in smartphones, even with established producers.
The Kind 1 sensor, previously known as 1-inch, will work its approach throughout the smartphone business. Whereas it’s most unlikely we’ll see Apple undertake it, we’d not be shocked if Samsung or Google did. Whereas the Kind 1 sensor is gaining floor with different producers outdoors of North America, it’s been slower to see it for these bigger, extra family names.
Given the success we’re seeing from these worldwide rivals, it’s clear that there must be some response from the large boys, and shortly, lest they discover themselves too far behind the eight ball.
A significant digital camera maker will lastly companion with smartphones indirectly.
Since Sony already makes its personal smartphones and each Hasselblad and Leica have been doing it for years, by “main” digital camera maker, we imply Canon or Nikon. From what we’ve gathered from conversations immediately with Canon and from our sources, we don’t imagine the corporate is able to make that leap. No, it is going to be Nikon, the underdog, that can step up and get on board with smartphones.
Canon received’t keep away perpetually, however it very effectively is perhaps the final to take action.
Canon and Nikon will attempt for a chunk of that vlogger pie.
It is perhaps a considerably nascent class, however Sony has been pushing laborious on the vlogger house for a few years now and we don’t assume it’ll proceed to be a one-company present. What’s more likely to occur is that Canon and Nikon will produce some form of compact, easy-to-use digital camera that can work effectively for vlogging and streaming.
Each already produce {hardware} and software program to make use of current cameras for streaming, however count on each to be put collectively a bundle that appeals to this market extra immediately.
Apple’s VR/AR headset will allow you to edit images and movies in a digital surroundings.
Apple is making a VR headset, that’s not an “if” however a “when.” When that occurs, it would embody the anticipated potential to sport collectively, will make the most of 3D content material from Apple’s streaming providers, and supply the flexibility to teleconference through avatars, bringing collectively the multi-person FaceTime and Memoji it already has. However along with these options, Apple may also push VR for apps and work.
Notable apps like Logic, Closing Minimize, and Movement will work in a digital surroundings. There, it is possible for you to to make a number of “shows” and configure them the way you’d like. HDR help within the glasses will allow full HDR workflows as effectively; think about a large preview display screen in full HDR! We’re certain Apple has that in thoughts.
Apple may also present APIs that can enable Adobe and others to make variations of their software program for this digital surroundings, so enhancing images in Photoshop or Lightroom and movies in Premiere all in a digital surroundings shall be doable — and a few of this shall be accessible at launch.
Leica will add part detection autofocus to its SL-series mirrorless cameras.
We have been going to foretell Panasonic would lastly add part detection autofocus to its cameras, however given the delay on this story we missed the boat there since it already occurred. As an alternative, we predict that due to the L2 Expertise alliance Panasonic has with Leica, you may count on that very same autofocus system to make its approach into Leica’s subsequent SL sequence digital camera.
Each corporations already admit they work collectively to provide tools, and in Panasonic’s announcement of the S5II and S5IIX, it additional defined that the processor on the core of these cameras was developed in tandem. No approach Leica doesn’t additionally use this know-how for its personal tools.
Ricoh will make main modifications to the way it manages cameras, which incorporates Pentax.
All shouldn’t be effectively at Ricoh, and the corporate is probably going reaching the tip of the rope it has prolonged to Pentax for the final a number of years. Let’s be actual: Pentax shouldn’t be a serious cash maker for the corporate, and because it evaluates all of its manufacturers to find out if it ought to even maintain them, don’t count on Pentax to return out of it unscathed.
“The time has come for us to make selections about our enterprise,” Ricoh’s chief monetary officer Shun Kawaguchi has stated.
The invoice comes due, and the fruits of its transition to a “workshop-like” manufacturing enterprise aren’t more likely to impress Ricoh’s accounting division. We might not be shocked if Ricoh sought a purchaser for the beleaguered model.
Picture credit: Components of header picture licensed through Depositphotos.
